With the Sept. 10-13 surprise seizure of control of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait by the Houthis, which controls passage from the Indian Ocean into the Red Sea and from there to the Suez Canal, another huge portion of global sea traffic has been disrupted, if not stopped altogether. There is scrambling in capitals around the world over how to address the new crisis situation.
Bab al-Mandeb is one of the busiest maritime chokepoints in the world, with almost 9% of all global seaborne trade passing through it, including 20% of both cars and containers and some 15% of crude and refined oil products. Add to that the effect of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the near-total stoppage of Russian and Ukrainian grain and fertilizer exports through the contested Black Sea, and the shape of a meltdown of massive proportions of the world’s physical economy begins to come into focus.
The war party crews in Washington, London, and Tel Aviv have leapt into immediate action. US Centcom confirmed that Adm. Brad Cooper called an urgent closed-door meeting in Germany of the military chiefs of staff of Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and numerous Gulf states, to discuss military steps for reopening Bab al-Mandeb, including Israeli “offers to help” Saudi Arabia against Iran—who are allies of the Houthis. British Prime Minister Andy Burnham is also considering jumping into the fray with military “help.”
This is a recipe for generalized warfare throughout Southwest Asia—on Russia’s southwestern flank—in a strategic context in which the United States has just announced that it has begun an arms race in space, while introducing a change in nuclear doctrine to promote the use of tactical nuclear weapons for supposedly “limited” nuclear war—an oxymoron, if ever there was one.
But an alternative to the growing probability of nuclear war is also starting to come into focus.
The Sept. 12-13 BRICS summit more than held its own against London-Washington efforts to fracture that grouping, which represents half the world’s population, as did the SCO summit two weeks earlier. Serious discussions were held, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated, “regarding the creation of alternative payment platforms, settlement and depository mechanisms, a reinsurance mechanism, an investment platform, and a grain exchange.”
More is scheduled for September, including the crucial Sept. 24 meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump at the White House, where President Xi will continue to offer the U.S. the opportunity to work together on infrastructure and other major projects in the Global South, which would be beneficial to all parties. In preparation for that trip, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, telling him that Beijing is “willing to strengthen dialogue and cooperation with Iran, and safeguard Iran’s legitimate rights and interests.” This is a message that Xi is expected to deliver personally to Trump when they meet, in the face of American threats and demands that all nations must cut off economic ties with Iran as decreed by the Treasury Department’s Operation Economic Outcast. Xi will also present Trump with options for the peaceful resolution of the entire Southwest Asia crisis, and that of Ukraine as well.
Wang Yi also met on Sept. 16 with Celso Amorim, the Special Advisor to Brazilian President Lula, for related discussions. Brazil is a founding member of the BRICS, as are Russia, India, China, and South Africa. On his way to China, Amorim also stopped in New Delhi, the host of the latest BRICS summit, for strategic discussions with the Modi government.
When the United Nations General Assembly begins its annual high-level General Debate on Sept. 22, as is traditional, the opening speech will be delivered by the Brazilian President Lula. Useful alternatives to onrushing global warfare, options based on the concept that development is the new name for peace, could well be placed on the world’s agenda at that time, and in the deliberations that follow.