A YouGov poll published on Thursday posed the question: “Do you think Friedrich Merz will still be chancellor at the end of this year, or will he no longer be chancellor?” Thirty-one percent said he would still be chancellor at the end of the year. Twenty-one percent did not respond. The remaining 48 percent expect that he will no longer be chancellor by the end of the year.

But who will be chancellor in 2027 then? So far, no alternative candidate in the CDU has surfaced, although sentiment for a change is apparently growing inside the party. At an election campaign event in Berlin on Thursday, Merz himself for the first time declared: “And I say this—I say this to all those in Germany, including those in my party, in our party: Anyone who thinks today that we should abandon Ukraine in its fight for freedom has, by tomorrow, abandoned freedom throughout Europe, ladies and gentlemen! And that path—that path—I will not take under any circumstances! Let whoever wants to, take that path! But I will not take it!”