Alastair Crooke, former MI6 Arab specialist and founder-director of the Beirut-based Conflicts Forum, which promotes dialogue between political Islam and the West, has granted interviews and posted an article this week on the current crisis across the Arab world. He was interviewed by Judge Napolitano How Saudi Arabia Is Collapsing and Glenn Diesen Insurrection & Regime Change Coming to Saudi Arabia? A New Middle East is Emerging. Crooke’s article is on his Substack account. He asserted on Diesen that the Saudi conflict with the Houthis (Ansar Allah) in Yemen is part of a general breakdown of the colonial system set up by British intelligence Arabist St. John Philby with the Saud family, granting them power in exchange for the oil being controlled by British and American oil companies. He says that the controls the Saud family have built up, in the Wahabi sect in Islam and the extended Saud family, are falling apart, and Mohammad bin Salman (MBS), the leader of the country, is in danger of being overthrown —- not by the Houthis, but by internal opposition.

MBS is getting resistance from the Wahabis over his modernization policies, including the Vision 2030 aimed at diversifying the Saudi culture and economy. Meanwhile, many in the Saud family still harbor resentments about MBS rounding them up in 2017 and locking them into the (5-star) Riyadh Ritz-Carlton, humiliating them and taking a great deal of their money. Add to that the financial crisis, since the nation is selling exactly zero oil at this point, due to the wars. Crooke adds that the Saudi Army is neither designed nor capable of fighting a war with the Houthis, but is essentially meant to protect the royal family. The population, Crooke says, does not live the posh life of the royals; it is suffering from the economic crisis.

Asked why the United States is hesitant to support the Saudis, Crooke says the U.S. and the British know the weakness of the Saudi military capacities. As does Egypt. He highly doubts that Pakistan or Turkiye will do anything, despite their Mecca Accord. As for the regional governments, he says that Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE are all fragile, and Egypt is in “deep trouble.” He asserts that if the IMF proceeds with its demand that Egypt cancel its bread subsidy, people will starve.