Bavarian Minister President Markus Soeder (Christian Social Union—CSU), a “firewall” hardliner among Christian Democrats, wants to fight against the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party with an “extremists clause” appendix which requires a change of legislation to be decided by a two-thirds majority of Germany’s 16 states. Soeder is optimistic that this can be achieved—less optimistic, however, are his own ratings: the latest opinion poll published by the Infratest-Dimap team places his CSU at 36 percent (3 percent below its September rating); the AfD is seen at 21 percent (2 percent up), followed by the Greens with 15 percent. The Free Voters are at 9 percent, the Social Democrats (SPD) at 8, followed by Die Linke with 4 percent.

The next regular state parliament elections are two years away, but if the erosion of the CSU continues—and that one can expect, given the chilly wind against the Christian Democrats–Soeder’s party may be overtaken by the AfD before then. The same opinion poll reports that 57 percent of Bavarians support the resignation and replacement of CDU Chancellor Friedrich Merz.