Developments in Israel from Saturday and Sunday indicate a deadlock is in place, as it appears increasingly likely that no coalition will reach 61 votes. There are reports that two parties in Netanyahu’s coalition sent out the word to the Opposition coalition of Eisenkot that they might be open to a deal. The United Torah Party and Shas, which have thirteen MKs between them, let it be known they are willing to leave Netanyahu’s coalition, if Eisenkot would break his campaign promise and agree to pass legislation to make deferments from military service for yeshiva students legal. If their 13 seats went to Eisenkot, it would give him 61 seats, enough to become Prime Minister. However, the same rumor circuits mentioning this also report that Eisenkot will not accept this deal, as he promised to back legislation which removes deferments for religious reasons. Netanyahu has said he would keep the status quo, which the religious parties don’t like, but could live with, as it is not the same as passing a law making service mandatory.

If Eisenkot doesn’t accept their terms of making a law allowing for deferments, they will stay with Bibi’s coalition. Since Eisenkot would remain short of the magic number of 61, Bibi would remain caretaker until President Herzog declared a stalemate, and would set a date for a new election.

The remaining option outside of this is if Eisenkot broke his pledge to not accept the support of the Palestine-Arab parties to form a government. Without the votes of the “religious” parties (United Torah Judaism and Shas), Eisenkot cannot form a government, unless the Arab parties joined his coalition. As of the moment, Netanyahu appears to be in the driver’s seat, as he retains the power of the PM position, while giving him time to maneuver for votes in a new election—one which he presumes would occur after he and Donald Trump will have delivered their promise for regime change in Iran.