Several media outlets have reported on the recent data, supplied by the Japanese Shipowners’ Association, warning that with the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (in the Red Sea) to Saudi vessels, delivery times of Saudi oil to Asia could increase by over 2.5 times. This comes in the wake of the seizure of the entire Red Sea Coast by the Houthis (see Sept. 13 briefing).
Yahya Saree, the Houthis’ military spokesman, said in a statement on Friday that “maritime navigation is safe for all companies except for Saudi vessels,” reported NPR on Sept. 12.
The traditional route through the Strait of Hormuz took about 40 days round trip, before the blockade, reported Business Upturn. The Red Sea alternative—in which the Saudis ship crude oil overland to the Red Sea coast, and then ship via tanker through the strait of Bab el-Mandeb—takes roughly 40-50 days round trip. The only remaining route is through the Suez Canal and around the southern tip of Africa—the Cape of Good Hope—and the shipment would stretch to at least 100 days round trip. And the largest oil tankers are too big to transit through the Suez Canal!
Stretching a round trip from 40 days to 100 days doesn’t just slow deliveries—it slashes a tanker’s annual voyages from about nine to fewer than four, effectively doubling the number of ships needed to move the same volume of crude. That shift turns a routing detour into a pricing shock: tanker capacity can’t expand quickly, so when voyage days spike, freight rates follow, pushing costs into the delivered price of crude rather than the headline benchmark. Refining margins take the initial hit, and the added burden eventually filters through the market. Longer voyages also force buyers to carry a larger supply buffer, since a refiner operating on a 100-day cycle must commit to purchases more than three months in advance instead of adjusting within weeks, noted Business Upturn.
Prior to the present conflict between the U.S. and Iran, Japan relied upon supplies in Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. for 95% of its crude oil supplies, as reported by [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/japans-middle-east-energy-dependency-how-it-mitigates-shocks-2026-03-04/ ) on March 4, 2026; that has now shifted heavily over to the U.S. and Mexico.
Prior to the conflict, about 25% of the world’s seaborne oil trade, 19% of LNG, and up to 30% of internationally-traded nitrogen fertilizers were shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. Clearly, a 2.5 increase in transit times for these vital resources will have a major, disastrous impact on the supply chains of the world.
