Israeli Military Intelligence Does Not Believe Iran Has Decided To Build a Bomb

Israeli Military Intelligence assesses that, as the Iranians have been insisting, Tehran has not made a decision to pursue the development and deployment of nuclear weapons. The Times of Israel reported yesterday that the assessment is part of the Israel Defense Forces’ annual intelligence assessment, and though ToI doesn’t say so, it provides a striking contrast to the harsh rhetoric that has been coming from top Israeli officials in recent days about the alleged existential threat stemming from Iran’s nuclear program."The Israeli military assesses that Iran is still roughly two years away from being able to create a working, deliverable nuclear weapon — roughly the same time frame it estimated last year — despite the Islamic Republic’s stockpiling and enrichment,” ToI reported. “Critically, this two-year estimate would require Iran to decide to press ahead full-steam with creating a nuclear weapon, in violation of not only the 2015 nuclear accord but also the nuclear non-proliferation treaty of which it is a signatory. As of this month, the IDF does not believe that Tehran has made such a decision and instead hopes to reenter negotiations with the United States regarding a return to the JCPOA by both countries.”