Cornered by demands from all sectors to end his criminal refusal to act against the COVID pandemic, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro this week tried to carry out what Ibero-Americans call an “auto-golpe,” a military “self-coup” in order to remain in power. But he failed. Now the question most analysts are asking is: How much longer will Bolsonaro be able to hold on to power, as the country sinks into collapse and chaos?
Bolsonaro tried to postpone the inevitable by shaking up his cabinet on March 29, including firing his Defense Minister Gen. Fernando Azevedo e Silva. He replaced Azevedo with a crony, Gen. Walter Braga Netto, who had been serving as Chief of Staff of the Presidency. Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo, a federal congressman, has been organizing right-wing militias to demonstrate in front of Army barracks, openly calling for a military intervention to support his father. Both Eduardo Bolsonaro and Braga Netto then issued provocative statements on the March 31st anniversary of the 1964 military coup, praising that coup for guaranteeing “democracy.” The message was clear.
But the military didn’t bite. The heads of all three branches—Army, Navy, and Air Force—refused to go along and threatened to jointly turn in their resignations, an action without precedent since the return to Brazilian democracy over 30 years ago. Faced with that defiance, General Braga Netto quickly “fired” the commanders “on Bolsonaro’s orders,” to retain a pretense of “being in charge.”
But Bolsonaro and his team are not in charge. There is a widespread revolt across the country, including within the military, against Bolsonaro’s insane handling of the pandemic, including his regular rants against masks, social distancing, and even vaccines. Just before being dumped, Defense Minister General Azevedo had defended a scathing interview given by the officer in charge of the Army’s health program, Gen. Paulo Sergio, in which he had told the leading paper in Brazil’s capital, Correio Braziliense, that the Army COVID mortality rate is way below that of the general population, because it strictly enforces precisely those World Health Organization recommendations which Bolsonaro insists must be ended. Pointing to what is happening in Europe, General Sergio warned that Brazil should be preparing for a third wave to hit within two months.
When the dust settled on the resignations/firings of the commanders of the three forces, the person who emerged as the new head of the Brazilian army was none other than General Sergio — an unmistakable message to Bolsonaro.
How long can Bolsonaro hold out? A few weeks ago, some 300 top bankers and businessmen issued an open letter demanding that he change COVID policies. Now it is clear he does not have the military as an institution behind him, either. The country is at the breakpoint: Under his cruel neoliberal policies, including ending all pandemic relief in December, 40 million out of 211 million Brazilians now live in extreme poverty.
