It would be a mistake to assume, especially in the context of U.S. provocations against both Russia and China, that the Biden Administration’s effort to reach some sort of accommodation with Iran respecting the JCPOA means that the potential for a U.S.-Iran rapprochement is growing despite the failure, so far, of the two sides to meet in the middle. The out-of-control hand grenade in the soup is clearly Israel. It emerged yesterday that the latest Israeli attack on Natanz may have been aimed as much at the Biden Administration as it was at Iranian centrifuges.
“The attack on Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility is casting a major shadow over the resumption of indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran over resurrection of the international accord limiting Iran’s nuclear program,” AP reported yesterday. “Neither Iran nor the U.S. say the incident will crater the negotiations. But the attack and the destruction of a significant amount of Iran’s uranium enrichment capability add uncertainty to the discussions set for Tuesday [April 13] in Vienna.” The degree of actual destruction of centrifuges remains a matter of debate, however, as Iranian officials announced yesterday that Iran would begin enriching uranium to 60% immediately.
As for the Natanz attack, the administration has reportedly taken a hands-off approach, neither praising nor condemning the attack. The White House said the U.S. ``had no involvement” and had “nothing to add to speculation about the causes.”
The U.S. Annual Threat Assessment report released yesterday contained an assessment unusually generous to Iran when discussing its nuclear program. “We continue to assess that Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities that we judge would be necessary to produce a nuclear device,’’ the report said, adding also that “Iran has consistently cast its resumption of nuclear activities as a reversible response to the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA and messaged that it would return to full compliance if the United States also fulfilled its JCPOA commitments.” It also stated that “if Tehran does not receive sanctions relief” — as Iran has demanded — “Iranian officials probably will consider options ranging from further enriching uranium up to 60% to designing and building a new” nuclear reactor that could, over the long term, produce bomb-grade material. That would take years.