According to an analysis of new satellite imagery by Hans Kristensen and Matt Korda of the Federation of American Scientists published on July 26, China is building a second field of nuclear missile silos, with an estimated 100-120 silos under construction. It follows on from two earlier reports, one by Kristensen from last February on an expansion of the facility in Jilantai that the PLA Rocket Forces use to train their missile crews, and one in the Washington Post, published about a month ago, on the first missile field near Yumen in Gansu province. Kristensen reports that the second field is located 380 kilometers (240 miles) northwest of the Yumen field near the prefecture-level city of Hami in Eastern Xinjiang. The grid-like outline of the entire complex indicates that it may eventually include approximately 110 silos.
“The silo construction at Yumen and Hami constitutes the most significant expansion of the Chinese nuclear arsenal ever. China has for decades operated about 20 silos for liquid-fuel DF-5 ICBMs. With 120 silos under construction at Yumen, another 110 silos at Hami, a dozen silos at Jilantai, and possibly more silos being added in existing DF-5 deployment areas, the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) appears to have approximately 250 silos under construction – more than ten times the number of ICBM silos in operation today,” Kirstensen and Korda write. “The number of new Chinese silos under construction exceeds the number of silo-based ICBMs operated by Russia, and constitutes more than half of the size of the entire US ICBM force.” They estimate that if all of these silos are loaded with single warhead missiles, the number of warheads on Chinese ICBMs could increase from the currently estimate 185 to 415 and if the missiles are equipped with multiple warhards, that number could go to 875, assuming three warheads per missile.
