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Ground Keeps Shifting Under the Petrodollar

Russian oil shipments to Asian countries were 300,000 barrels per day higher than they have been over the past two years, at 1.7 million bpd in March; this means China, India, South Korea and Japan, but with Japan having embargoed Russian oil in April. CNBC reported from an industry source that India imported 6 million barrels from Russia in March, which is equal to half of its imports for all of 2021. China’s oil imports from Russia actually were lower than previous years in January-February, according to OilPrice.com, which said China is cracking down on small refiners known there as “teapots,” which have been taking market share and which tend to be polluting and inefficient. However, now that China is paying for Russian oil in yuan, and with the Russian $30 discount from Brent crude price, China too is importing at significantly higher levels than before the war.

Russia’s oil exports to Europe dropped by a larger amount, about 500,000 bpd over March and April through “self-sanctioning” by European oil majors and other companies. So the Russian Energy Ministry says, according to Bloomberg News, that Russia’s total oil production has dropped by about 5%, to an average of 1.436 million tons/day in the first week of April. Bloomberg’s article acknowledged, however, that the gates are open and more and more Russian oil will go to Asian countries.

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