The Lead

Schiller Institute Press Release: RED ALERT: Ukrainian Strike on Russian Early Warning Radar Threatens To Unleash Nuclear World War

by Stewart Battle (EIRNS) — May. 25, 2024

Over the course of Wednesday night and Thursday morning [May 22-23], Ukrainian drones struck the Armavir Radar Station in Russia’s southwestern Krasnodar Krai region, a part of Russia’s early warning radar system designed to detect an incoming ICBM attack. This radar is one of the pillars in Russia’s nuclear posture system which, along with other such installations, plays an existential role in the strategic security of the Russian Federation. Far beyond escalating tensions with Ukraine alone, this attack has now brought the world another step closer to the verge of a thermonuclear war.

Russian Senator and former Roscosmos head Dmitry Rogozin responded to this development by noting that, while one could imagine a Ukrainian were behind this, in reality it is Washington that has “hired an irresponsible bandit” to carry out its dirty work. “Thus, we stand not only on the precipice, but on the very edge, beyond which, if the enemy is not stopped in such actions, an irreversible collapse of the strategic security of nuclear powers will begin,” Rogozin wrote on his Telegram channel.

This madness must be stopped now. The Armavir attack occurred just days after Russia carried out high-profile tactical nuclear military exercises, as if to declare to President Putin: “You are bluffing.” Playing a nuclear chicken game while threatening to destroy a nuclear superpower which is already at war, threatens to annihilate the entire human species.

Schiller Institute founder Helga Zepp-LaRouche, in addressing a meeting of the International Peace Coalition on May 24, drew people’s attention to the solutions to the crisis. She insisted we must end the West’s belief in geopolitics, which has made people believe that Russia and China are our enemies, and instead establish a new security and development architecture that respects the interests of all nations. “If that cannot be overcome, I’m afraid that the chances we will end up in World War III are approaching 100%,” she said.

Numerous military and intelligence specialists consulted by the Schiller Institute have expressed their grave concern over the meaning of the Armavir attack and its consequences:

The Russian satellite-based early warning system is very limited and cannot be used to cover the blind spots created by damage to the radar. The Atlantic, Pacific, and Northern radar warning corridors are more important, and the Russians also have radars in Moscow. However, the radars in Moscow will only see threats at a later time, resulting in yet shorter warning and decision-making times—thereby increasing the chances of a catastrophic accident.

The commanders of the Strategic Rocket Forces, who serve the political leaders, will be really, really concerned, and they will have no choice but to treat this situation as quite serious. They will almost certainly choose to operate their nuclear strike forces at a higher level of alert, which will further increase the chances of accidents that could lead to an unintended global nuclear war.

— Dr. Theodore Postol, Professor Emeritus of Science, Technology and National Security at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, nuclear weapons expert

The U.S. has begun directing missile attacks on the Russian nuclear Early Warning System (EWS), which is made up of a series of ground-based radars and satellites… ANY such attacks against these EWS systems could trigger the Russian nuclear response system. So this U.S.-directed attack is insanely dangerous. Washington is playing nuclear chicken with Russia.

The site attacked was within range of the U.S. ATACMS; I don’t know if any other similar Russian facilities are within range of the ATACMS, or possibly even the German Taurus missiles, which have a longer range than the ATACMS and the U.K. Storm Shadow missiles. Unfortunately, we may soon find out, as the madmen in Washington, Kyiv, and Brussels seem determined to start World War 3.

— Steven Starr, Professor, University of Missouri, expert on nuclear war

There are obviously forces in Ukraine and also in NATO that are prepared to take the risk of a direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia. German politicians would be well advised to take the Russians’ warnings of a new world war seriously and ensure that the final red lines are not crossed. As a modern industrialized country at the heart of Europe, Germany is ill-suited for war in a major European conflict—even without nuclear weapons. German politicians must do everything in their power to de-escalate the increasing military confrontation and commit themselves to a diplomatic solution to the conflict.

— Colonel (ret.) Prof. Dr. Wilfried Schreiber, Senior Research Fellow at the WeltTrends Institute for International Politics, Potsdam, Germany

This is a continuation of the pattern in which the NATO forces recognize they are losing the war in Ukraine, with the fragile lines of defense breaking, and the NATO response is to escalate. This is not accidental, but very deliberate. It is not the first attack on the Russian nuclear triad. The ideological folks are seeing their world crumbling, after flying the rainbow flag over conservative countries and [waging] perpetual wars. They are frantic and could escalate to nuclear war to get out of the bind. They are taking a series of baby steps, and respond that “they don’t do anything in response,” and so they keep taking baby steps until one of them lands on a land mine and we are into World War III. I’ve said it, Helga [Zepp-LaRouche] has said it. Putin is very aware of the disconnect in the West, who keep saying he is just saber rattling, but he is not—he is informing the West of the dangerous reality.

— Col. (ret.) Richard H. Black, former state senator from Virginia

I expect that the U.S. military, faced with a vital situation, are going to behave more reasonably and consciously than the civilians.

— Gen. (ret.) Dominique Delawarde, Intelligence expert, France

This clearly could not have happened without full U.S. support. I can’t comment adequately until I learn more, but it is obviously escalatory, and I will look into it.

— Graham Fuller, former diplomat, CIA officer, and vice-chair of the National Intelligence Council

They’re on an escalating treadmill, especially after what Blinken told Ukraine—they could “do what they want with their missiles.” It demonstrates the irresponsible American leadership. We’re headed for the nuclear escalator. The West is facing defeat in Ukraine, and therefore they’re escalating to avoid defeat.

— Prof. Richard Sakwa, Emeritus Professor of Russian and European Politics, Kent University (U.K.); prolific author on Russia and Ukraine

Due to the urgent nature of this report, EIR has made today's EIR Daily News free of charge for the widest possible circulation.

Contents

Strategic War Danger

• A Dangerous Nuclear Escalation: Russian Early Warning Radar Hit by Ukrainian Drones (↓)
• Rogozin Warns Armavir Attack Raises Danger of World War III (↓)
• Is the U.S. Using Ukraine To Set Up Nuclear First Strike Against Russia? (↓)
• NATO Threats Against Russia (↓)
• Former German UN Diplomat Von der Schulenburg Warns of ‘Further Miscalculations’ Regarding Russia (↓)
• China Concludes Military Maneuvers To ‘Seize’ Taiwan (↓)
• EU Staff Revolt over Gaza Response (↓)

Collapsing Imperial System

• Post-Industrial Nightmare Shows Baltimore Leading Nation in Drug Overdose Deaths (↓)

In-Depth

Strategic War Danger

A Dangerous Nuclear Escalation: Russian Early Warning Radar Hit by Ukrainian Drones

by Carl Osgood (EIRNS) — May. 25, 2024

An early warning radar station in Russia’s Southern Krasnodar region was apparently hit by a drone attack in recent days. Most of the available analysis, which includes satellite imagery, puts the strike on the night of May 22-23. “Ukrainian troops continue their aggressive campaign against strategically important targets on Russian territory,” reported the Russian Avia.pro military news site. “This time, their target was the Voronezh-DM strategic long-range detection radar station of the missile attack warning system (SPRN), located in Armavir.” It includes imagery showing two damaged structures at the Armavir site which are now widely circulating. The limited nature of the damage suggests that indeed the structures, which house the radar antennas, were hit by drones.

“The distance of the station from the Ukrainian border is more than 450 kilometers, which indicates a significant range of Ukrainian drones,” Avia.pro notes. “Let us recall that on the same day an attempt was recorded to attack an oil refinery in Tatarstan.”

“These incidents confirm that Ukraine continues to use modern technologies and tactics to conduct military operations,” it comments further. “Strikes against objects of strategic importance not only cause material damage, but also create serious threats to Russia’s national security. It is obvious that Ukraine is not acting independently, but with the support of Western partners who provide intelligence and technological assistance.”

Then the Avia.pro author gets to the point, which is that these attacks point up weaknesses in Russian air defenses that need to be addressed. “It is important to strengthen airspace control, especially in border regions, and increase the effectiveness of intercepting enemy drones,” he says. “It is also necessary to continue modernizing strategic facilities and strengthening their protection.”

Then the second, even more important point: “Western countries supporting Ukraine are actually participating in the escalation of the conflict by providing technology and intelligence for attacks on Russian targets. Such support contributes to the continuation of hostilities and the deepening of the crisis, which undermines efforts to peacefully resolve the conflict.”

Rogozin Warns Armavir Attack Raises Danger of World War III

by Carl Osgood (EIRNS) — May. 25, 2024

Dmitry Rogozin, former head of the Roscosmos Russian space agency and now a Senator in Russia’s Federation Council, charged in a posting on his Telegram channel, that the U.S. is behind the attack on the Armavir early warning radar station. Rogozin suggested that it was extremely unlikely that the strike, which Ukrainian media reported involved several drones, was carried out at Kiev’s sole initiative and without U.S. involvement.

“Since the U.S.S.R. acquired means of delivering nuclear weapons, the United States of America has never given up attempts to achieve superiority over us in the military-strategic sphere,” he said, according to a machine translation of his remarks. “NEVER. And if previously such attempts lay in the sphere of military-technical developments and concepts (for example, the ‘Strategic Defense Initiative’ of the 1980s, which envisaged the deployment in space of a group of military lasers to intercept Soviet ICBMs, or ‘Strategic Missile Defense’ of the 2000s and to the present day, which was accompanied by the U.S. withdrawal from the 1972 ABM Treaty and the deployment of U.S. and NATO missile defense radars and missile bases directly near our western and eastern borders), now Washington has come out the mastermind of the crime, having hired an irresponsible bandit [Zelenskyy] trying to damage the facility of our Missile Attack Warning System (MAWS), a key element of the Combat Command System for Strategic Nuclear Forces.”

Rogozin discounted the possibility that the strike was carried out on Kyiv’s initiative. “However, taking into account Washington’s deep involvement in this armed conflict and American total control over Kyiv’s military planning, the story that the United States does not know about Ukrainian plans to strike Russia’s missile defense system can be discarded. Washington will have to answer fully for the past and future crimes of the distraught Ukrainian leadership.”

Rogozin concludes, “Thus, we stand not only on the precipice, but on the very edge, beyond which, if the enemy is not stopped in such actions, an irreversible collapse of the strategic security of nuclear powers will begin.”

The truth behind the U.S. nuclear first strike doctrine, to which Rogozin seems to be referring, was documented by EIR in December of 2022.

Is the U.S. Using Ukraine To Set Up Nuclear First Strike Against Russia?

by Carl Osgood (EIRNS) — May. 25, 2024

The Kyiv regime’s drone attack on Russia’s Armavir early warning radar station is an extremely dangerous provocation because of its potential for triggering a nuclear strike in response. Russia’s nuclear doctrine, “Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence,” promulgated and signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2020, lists among other things an “attack by adversary against critical governmental or military sites of the Russian Federation, disruption of which would undermine nuclear forces response actions,” as a condition for responding with nuclear weapons.

In view of the Russian doctrine, the U.S. is using the Kyiv regime as a proxy to blind Russia in preparation for a nuclear first strike, or is working to force Moscow itself to respond with nuclear strikes. Russia’s early warning radars have nothing to do with the Russian special military operation against Ukraine, so there is no possible tactical reason for strikes on the Armavir radar. “Ukraine is now carrying out the slow de-arming and neutralization of Russia’s nuclear triad on behalf of NATO, which is an extremely existentially dangerous position for Russia to be in,” wrote Simplicius, who despite the pseudonym often posts sober analyses of the Russia-Ukraine war, in a May 24 posting on his Substack site, “Simplicius the Thinker,” immediately after quoting that paragraph from Russia’s nuclear doctrine. “Thus, Russia is now within its doctrinal rights to respond with nuclear retaliatory force—and Ukraine is just beginning its escalations.”

MIT Professor Emeritus Theodore Postol, during a March 17, 2022, discussion hosted by the American Committee for U.S.-Russia Accord, warned that the already existing shortfalls in Russian early warning capabilities were shortening decision times whether or not to launch before Russia’s retaliatory forces are destroyed on the ground. “Because of the ever-increasing firepower of U.S. nuclear forces, and the severe technical shortfalls in Russian space-based sensing technologies, Russia has been forced into a doomsday posture where under certain conditions its nuclear forces will be launched automatically,” he said in a slide for that presentation. He argued that the shortfalls in Russian space-based capabilities are such that if there is not enough time to assure a decision whether or not to launch a retaliatory strike, the Russian command authorities will have to pre-delegate launch authority to lower-level commanders. If the threat increases substantially, Russia will have made that pre-delegation decision.

The two antennas of the Armavir radar point to the south and southwest, covering an area, according to available maps, encompassing the Eastern Mediterranean, the Arabian Peninsula, Iran, the Arabian Sea and the western Indian Ocean as far as south as India’s Kerala state. In this regard, the October 2022 surfacing of the Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine USS West Virginia in the Arabian Sea, well inside the radar coverage of the Armavir radar is notable. The sub surfaced to take onboard U.S. Central Command chief Gen. Michael Kurilla, but its appearance suggested to Russian observers that the U.S. was sending a message about the threat that it can pose to Russian strategic forces from this direction.

NATO Threats Against Russia

by Carl Osgood (EIRNS) — May. 25, 2024

The Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian Armavir came shortly after the deployment of three U.S. B-52 bombers to RAF Fairford in England. The bombers arrived at RAF Fairford on Monday, May 20 and Wednesday, May 22 to “integrate with NATO Allies and other international partners to synchronize capabilities and assure security commitments across the U.S. European Command area of responsibility,” according to an Air Force press release.

According to Avia.pro, two of the B-52s were sighted over Sweden, probably yesterday, in an apparent training event with the Swedish navy. “These bombers have significant capabilities and can carry nuclear weapons, making their presence particularly dangerous,” Avia.pro notes.

Then, on May 24, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg escalated the war against Russia by calling on the U.S. to allow the Kyiv regime to attack Russia directly with U.S.-supplied long- range weapons. “The time has come for allies to consider whether they should lift some of the restrictions they have put on the use of weapons they have donated to Ukraine,” he told the editor-in-chief of The Economist in an interview. “Especially now when a lot of the fighting is going on in Kharkiv, close to the border, to deny Ukraine the possibility of using these weapons against legitimate military targets on Russian territory makes it very hard for them to defend themselves.”

A day later, Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski joined Stoltenberg in throwing more gasoline on the fire. In an interview with The Guardian Sikorski pushed hard for greater escalation by both the EU and NATO against Russia. In doing so, he also gave a green light for more attacks like that on the Armavir radar station.

According to The Guardian, Sikorski was skeptical about Russian threats to use nuclear weapons, saying: “The Americans have told the Russians that if you explode a nuke, even if it doesn’t kill anybody, we will hit all your targets [positions] in Ukraine with conventional weapons, we’ll destroy all of them.

“I think that’s a credible threat. Also, the Chinese and the Indians have read Russia the riot act. And it’s no child’s play because if that taboo were also to be breached, like the taboo of not changing borders by force, China knows that Japan and Korea would go nuclear, and presumably they don’t want that.”

Former German UN Diplomat Von der Schulenburg Warns of ‘Further Miscalculations’ Regarding Russia

by Elke Fimmen (EIRNS) — May. 25, 2024

In an interview with the website Makroskop published on May 23, Michael von der Schulenburg, former UN Deputy Secretary-General, once again called urgently for an end to the war in Ukraine.

On the situation in Ukraine, he said, among other things: “The Ukrainians today are the betrayed people of Europe, betrayed by us, too. Their country has become a battlefield for geopolitical interests, including Western geopolitical interests. If we really want to be friends of Ukraine, as we like to claim, we should now do everything we can to end this war through a negotiated peace.”

The Biden administration had “ignored all warnings that Russia would react militarily to Ukraine’s accession and Europe remained silent. The United States probably underestimated the Russians at the time and thought they wouldn’t dare. The West simply didn’t understand how deeply the Russians—and not just Putin—regarded NATO directly on their borders as an existential threat to Russia and still do today.”

Von der Schulenburg likewise urgently warns against further miscalculations: “If the United States continues to escalate with NATO support, and, as announced, now sends weapons that can strike Russia in its strategically important locations, Russia would not shy away from extreme reactions, as indicated. The danger of this conflict escalating into a nuclear war is therefore higher today than ever before. NATO should not underestimate Russia’s determination again.”

Europe has no independent position at all. Instead, we should “shy away from such an escalation and fully back negotiations.” Europe must defend our own security interests, he said, continuing: “But we are not doing that. … We are running behind the Americans—even if that means our economic downfall or, even worse, could jeopardize our survival.”

As a UN diplomat, Michael von der Schulenburg has mediated in many international war zones, including Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Syria, Haiti and Sierra Leone. He is currently campaigning for the European Parliament on the slate of Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW). Together with Hajo Funke, Harald Kujat, and Peter Brandt, they had published a statement on April 11, 2024 urging German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to support the Feb. 24, 2023 Chinese peace efforts to end the war in Ukraine during Scholz’s April 14-17 visit to China.

China Concludes Military Maneuvers To ‘Seize’ Taiwan

by Bill Jones (EIRNS) — May. 25, 2024

The latest Chinese military exercise, Joint Sword 2024A, concluded on May 24. The maneuvers projected a significant level of seriousness in regard to the threats of Taiwan independence, and took place three days after new President Lai Ching-te took office. As a part of the Chinese reaction, the Chinese Coast Guard in Fujian province—across from Taiwan—also mobilized ships for long-range “law enforcement operations.”
The present operations, which have been broadly covered by the Chinese media, were far more extensive than those conducted in response to then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Aug. 2, 2022 visit to Taiwan, or the later March 30-April 6, 2023 visit of then-Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen to the United States, during which she met with U.S. officials.
In an explicit statement of this reality, the People’s Liberation Army said Friday that the exercises are designed to test China’s ability to “seize power” over Taiwan. Further, the name of the exercise, Joint Sword 2024A, indicates that if provocations on the part of Taiwan continue, there is also a B, C, and D in place.

EU Staff Revolt over Gaza Response

by Dean Andromidas (EIRNS) — May. 25, 2024

There is now a growing revolt even in the European Commission over the fact that these nations have lacked a vigorous response to the humanitarian disaster in the Gaza Strip. Some 211 of the employees of EU institutions and agencies have signed a letter expressing deep concerns regarding this lack of response. The letter was apparently delivered on Friday, May 24, to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola and EU Council President Charles Michel according to The Guardian, which saw the document exclusively.

The letter warned that the EU’s “continued apathy to the plight of Palestinians” risks legitimizing a world order where the use of force, rather than adherence to a rules-based system, dictates state security, territorial integrity and political independence. This contradicts the Union’s fundamental values and its mission to promote peace, the staff members said in the letter.

The signers further wrote: “It was precisely to avert such a grim world order that our grandparents, witnesses of the horrors of World War II, created Europe. To stand idly by in the face of such an erosion of the international rule of law would mean failing the European project as envisaged by them. This cannot happen in our name.”

The letter urges the EU to officially demand an immediate and lasting ceasefire, advocating for the release of all hostages, and halting EU member states’ arms exports to Israel, whether directly and indirectly.

Collapsing Imperial System

Post-Industrial Nightmare Shows Baltimore Leading Nation in Drug Overdose Deaths

by Kevin Gribbroek (EIRNS) — May. 25, 2024

On May 23, the New York Times, in collaboration with the Baltimore Banner, published the the first article in a series reporting on a study covering the out-of-control explosion of drug overdose deaths in the City of Baltimore—or “Charm City” as it is known by its residents. Once a vibrant, middle-class metropolis with a large manufacturing base—including the largest steel mill in the world—and a population of almost a million, 75 years of post-industrial policies have reduced the population by almost half, with a poverty rate of 30%, one of the highest homicide rates of any major city, and the leader by far in drug overdose deaths.

According to the Times article: “In the past six years, nearly 6,000 lives have been lost. The death rate from 2018 to 2022 was nearly double that of any other large city, and higher than nearly all of Appalachia during the prescription pill crisis, the Midwest during the height of rural meth labs or New York during the crack epidemic.” During the period of 2018 to 2022, the death rate from drug overdose in Baltimore was 170 per 100,000. Its closest competitor was Knox County, Tennessee, which includes the City of Knoxville, with a rate of 86 per 100,000. New York City had an overdose death rate of 43.3 in 2022. With recreational marijuana—a notorious gateway drug—now legal in the state of Maryland, it is very likely this rate will increase.

Many interviews were done for the study with various city leaders who, seemingly clueless, expressed shock when confronted with the study’s findings: “Councilman Mark Conway, who leads the city’s public safety committee, described the deaths as ‘completely unacceptable’ and said he would have called for hearings if he had known how much Baltimore was an outlier.

“The numbers are ‘horrifying,’ said Dr. Laura Herrera Scott, Maryland’s health secretary since 2023, adding, ‘We haven’t deployed the right resources in the right places.’”

And what are the “resources” being discussed to address the crisis? More money for psychiatric counseling, treatment centers, awareness events at high schools, handing out more Narcan, online self-help websites such as DontDie.org, etc. No where does the article address the decades of economic and cultural collapse, driven by insane post-industrial policies, as the root cause of the crisis.