This was the question that IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva posed to two visiting Argentine trade union leaders with whom she met privately on Feb. 20 before her official meeting later that same evening with President Javier Milei and his Finance Minister Luis “Toto” Caputo, who were coming to beg for a new IMF agreement in the range of $10-15 billion, trying to escape the backlash from the $LIBRA mega crypto scandal unleashed by Milei personally on Feb. 14, and whose repercussions have been felt internationally. The question hanging over these meetings: Could there be a “post-Milei” era on the horizon?
Gerardo Martínez, head of the large construction workers union UOCRA and international affairs secretary of the CGT trade union federation, and Cristian Jeronimo, CGT healthcare secretary and head of the glassworkers’ union, participated in a forum organized by the World Bank and then met privately with Georgieva for 30 minutes after that, according to InfoGremiales. In their meeting, she wanted their view on three things: the viability of the current IMF-endorsed “fiscal adjustment” (austerity) plan, institutional conflict, and the impact of the $LIBRA “crypto-gate” scam which has engulfed Milei, his sister Karina, and their inner circle.
Martínez had reported first to the larger World Bank meeting, also attended by Georgieva, that the 1.8% fiscal surplus of which Milei brags is fictitious–only achieved by gutting pensions, paralyzing public works, reducing subsidies, and freezing wages of state sector workers. This was the context in which the IMF Managing Director asked the two privately whether Milei will make it to the end of his term in December 2027, expressing concern about his “psychologically confrontational” style—he insults and fights with everyone—and questioning the role of his inner circle of close collaborators.
The IMF says it’s worried about the “collateral damage” caused by eliminating all subsidies, which is causing recession in the country’s interior, increasing conflict in collective bargaining, making clear that this degree of social fracturing makes economic growth impossible. Not that economic growth has ever been an IMF concern. But, given the degree of political infighting and dissent within Milei’s own governing coalition, the Fund worries that any new deal it might sign now “could collapse in 2025.” So, no surprise, that Milei’s meeting with Georgieva that same evening produced no results, except for her statement that his stabilization program had obtained “significant results” but that the government and IMF teams are “still negotiating” on a new agreement.
An anonymous IMF expert told El Agora that “it’s not just a matter of numbers, but avoiding a social default. Every fight that Milei has with the media, governors, or businessmen reduces his margin for applying reforms.” Hence, the Fund is keeping a “post-Milei” scenario in mind, if it becomes evident that he has lost all control of the situation. Roberto Navarro, editor of El Destape, has another theory as to why the IMF is worried: It fears it will never find anyone as insane as Milei, who’s willing to do whatever is necessary to pay the debt—kill retirees by denying them medication and food, starve children to death, fire workers en masse, gouge wages, dismantle the state, etc.
