The blogger Simplicius, in a review of the military situation in Ukraine posted late on May 26, reports that the Russian military is dominating all aspects of the battlefield. He reports that Russian Iskander and KH-101 missiles and Geran drones have become unstoppable due to new upgrades, including decoys and electronic warfare measures that prevent Patriot and other air defense systems from intercepting them. He cites the Washington Post reporting that Ukrainian air defenses failed to intercept any of the 9 ballistic missiles fired by Russia on the night of May 24-25.
Even the Russian Geran drones have seen all kinds of upgrades, including “machine learning” that allows them to hit targets in Kiev effortlessly. The deputy commander of a Ukrainian air defense unit in the Odessa region told the French daily Le Monde that the drones now fly at altitudes of 2,000-3,000 meters, much too high to be shot down by gunfire.
But the real revelation in Le Monde is that Ukraine is running out of air defense missiles. “According to a Le Monde source, Ukraine no longer has any missiles for its two SAMP/T batteries, and it has ‘not received a single missile for a year and a half’ for the [French-made] Crotale short-range anti-aircraft system.” Kiev is unlikely to get much help from the U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio testified last week that the U.S. has no Patriot systems left that it can spare.
According to news reports Simplicius cited, Russia has also now achieved superiority over Ukraine in drone warfare. Russian FPV drones now routinely strike not only on Ukrainian frontline positions, but also 30-40 km into their rear areas, a previously unheard-of capability. Russian forces are using the FPV drones to make logistical resupply of Ukrainian troops on the front lines impossible. Russia is also reportedly operating drone swarms with AI that allows them to fly in a coordinated fashion and pick and choose targets while on the fly.
Russia is also dominating on the ground, with reports claiming that Russian forces have captured as much as 100 sq km of territory in the last day or so. Most distressing for Kiev is a video circulating, which shows residents of Zorya, a village in the Donetsk Oblast, greeting Russian troops with “warm hugs.” Russian forces are in the process of forming a cauldron around Konstantinovka, a major city to the north of Zorya. Russian forces are also reported to be advancing in the Sumy and Zaporozhye regions.
