Celso Amorim, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s Special Advisor on Foreign Policy, fears that the U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iran over the last days, coming on top of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, may lead into a world war, he told UOL network journalist Jamil Chad in an interview on Sunday, June 22. The “huge impact” of those strikes has created a situation more dangerous than “what happened in Iraq, which was reprehensible. At that time, no one feared a world war. Today, I fear it.”
Amorim specified that he was speaking “on my own behalf, from the height of my 83 years,” and not on behalf of the Brazilian government. The Foreign Ministry issued the official statement the same day, condemning the attacks on nuclear installations and calling for de-escalation. His disclaimer aside, Amorim’s more alarmed remarks reflects what the highest levels of the Brazilian government are more-quietly debating, in the wake of the U.S. attack, in particular.
Amorim still thinks that the danger of a “total world war”—meaning nuclear war—is slim. “It is unlikely that a country that has a nuclear weapon would use it against other nuclear powers. I don’t think the level of madness has reached that point,” he said. However, “if the two wars communicate with each other, as may happen, it would practically be a world war. If you add the tariff war to the scenario, I think the world is running the risk of sinking like I’ve never seen before.”
He, in fact, views the crisis in today’s world to be greater than in 1962. “Even at the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis, we obviously had a moment of drama. But in that case, it involved two people. One on each side. Today, you can’t control it. There are the Iranians, the Israelis, there are those who have chemical weapons. It’s very complex.”
He pointed to the risk that the “preventive” strike carried by the Americans on Iran could set an example for leaders in other regions of the world, to take similar “preventive” measure, in the face of threats to the country’s interests. “This is very dangerous.”
The recent military strikes “are threatening the Iranian people, the region, the risk of war, but also the credibility of the UN and the Non-Proliferation Treaty,” he added. In fact, “what the Americans are doing is encouraging a country to develop a nuclear weapon. In that case, the power of retaliation would be very great.” Brazil does not intend to leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and “will continue to fight for disarmament. But it would have been more difficult to join today, after this situation,” he cautioned. “There would be more doubts. Ours and others'.”
As Amorim noted: “All of this could have been completely avoided.”
