Derivatives Growth Accelerates

There are indications that the growth of global derivatives is accelerating in 2026, well beyond the $2.4 quadrillion level as of the end of 2025. Official BIS statistics show that, over the last decade, total over-the-counter derivatives have dropped in the second semester of each year (compared to the first semester) by anywhere from 7-10%, before resuming their growth in the following first semester. But the just-released numbers for second semester 2025 show no drop at all for the first time since 2013. This suggests that higher than usual derivatives growth is already underway for 2026—perhaps related to the crypto/stablecoin craze.