Kelsey Davenport, the Director for Nonproliferation Policy at the Arms Control Association, warns that the Israeli bombing of Iran’s nuclear program is likely to spur Iran into developing its own bomb. “Prior to Israel’s strike (on June 13), Iran was on the threshold of nuclear weapons, but the U.S. Intelligence Community consistently assessed that Tehran was not engaged in weaponization,” she wrote in a column posted yesterday in Just Security. “Israel’s strike may have pulled Iran off that technical threshold, but only slightly and likely temporarily. In the long term, Israel’s attack increases the proliferation risk and makes a nuclear armed Iran more likely for several reasons.”
Among the reasons she cites are the following: Israeli strikes cannot destroy Iran’s nuclear program because it can’t target Iran’s deeply buried facilities; Israel’s attacks will drive further debate in Iran about the security value of nuclear weapons; strikes on Iran’s nuclear program and the prospect for further attacks on nuclear sites makes it unlikely that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will have access to key Iranian nuclear facilities in the coming weeks; and, military strikes will have a disruptive effect on diplomacy, particularly if Iran views the United States as complicit in Israel’s attack.
“An effective, verifiable nonproliferation agreement focused on limiting Iran’s program and enhancing monitoring remains the best chance of sustainably blocking Iran’s pathways to nuclear weapons and disincentivizing future weapons efforts. In the best-case scenario, Israel’s strikes set back diplomatic efforts. In the worst-case scenario, Israel’s strike ends nuclear negotiations and ignites an escalatory spiral that could push Iran to reject diplomacy, withdraw from the NPT, and broaden the regional conflict,” Davenport concludes. “A nuclear agreement is still possible and all the more necessary now, but the United States, Iran, and other regional players need to act with restraint and remain focused on the negotiations.”
