The Labor Department reported July 3 that although the American non-institutional civilian population got 200,000 larger from May to June, the civilian labor force got 130,000 smaller, and was 750,000 smaller than in April.
With the all-nighter passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill by an exhausted Republican pack of President Trump’s sled-dogs in the House, the White House mushers are claiming that tariffs will bring $2.4 trillion into the Treasury over the 10 years through 2034, preventing the U.S. federal debt bubble from completely blowing out (although the bill raises the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion, to over $40 trillion, two years from now). However, the strange Trumpian talk about “how much money the United States will make off other countries” is not real, and especially not of the real economy. Of the estimates of tariff income in January to June of this year thus far, the highest is just $80 billion, from the The Budget Lab at Yale University. That rate of tariff income will be eaten for lunch by the $160 billion increase in border/deportation funding in the new bill, or by the similar-sized increase in war spending. And that tariff income will likely decline as some countries shift trade away from the American market.
