The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve lost 9.9 million barrels in the week ending May 15—the largest weekly withdrawal on record—following an 8.6-million-barrel draw the previous week. The two consecutive releases are the two largest weekly SPR withdrawals in U.S. history. Total SPR stocks now stand at 374.2 million barrels, the lowest level since July 2024 and 340 million barrels below the reserve’s maximum capacity.
Brent crude traded above $107 per barrel on Thursday, May 21, after rising more than 2% on the day, with prices running roughly 50% above pre-war levels and oscillating sharply on the Iran-negotiations track—falling 5.9% Wednesday on news of Trump’s postponement of strikes during the Hajj, then rising again on Thursday.
International Energy Agency Executive Director Dr. Fatih Birol warned May 21 at London’s Chatham House that world oil markets “may be entering the red zone in July or August.” Birol said the current crisis is worse than the three previous oil shocks (1973, 1979, 2022), with 14 million barrels of disrupted oil missing daily from the world market because of the Iran War, and that the disruption will persist for at least one year. He said he has “never seen the dark and long shadow of geopolitics so dominant in the energy sector.” He assessed: “The single most important solution is the full and unconditional opening of the Strait of Hormuz.”