Leon Panetta, CIA director and Secretary of Defense under Obama, expressed skepticism that there’s anything President Trump would do regarding the war on Iran that would improve the situation. Panetta at least revealed the truth about the fact that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was no surprise: “The reality is, we always knew that Iran would ultimately close the Strait of Hormuz, and we should have had a plan. We missed that opportunity. As long as the Strait remains closed, as long as they continue to put tremendous pressure on the US and the world economy, we’re not going to get anywhere because they have the leverage.”
Regarding Trump, Panetta said: “My sense is that it’s very likely this war, which was supposed to end after six to eight weeks, is probably going to continue for a number of months,” he told The Times of London in an interview. “This is because we have not found the key to how we achieve, not just a continuing ceasefire, but a resolution to some of the crucial issues which will then allow us to end the war. The president, frankly, has very few options,” he said.
“I question whether additional military action is going to produce any real change in the regime. They’ve been able to withstand a great deal, and from our own intelligence the indication is that they can continue to withstand that kind of impact. So I’m not sure military action provides a key to trying to apply leverage right now,” he said.
“The president is going to have to decide: does he continue to seek some kind of quick end to the war? If so, that means he’s got to deal with the Strait of Hormuz, and, at the very least, he has to provide a negotiating mechanism for the nuclear issue. But that process is not there right now,” he said.
Panetta, who more recently has co-hosted a regular podcast with former MI6 head Sir Richard Dearlove, dismissed the notion that putting boots on the ground might be a solution because 200,000 troops would be needed to take control of the strait away from Iran and there’s no support for that kind of operation. “"The only other way to approach this is to recognize that Iran will have some control, but that the main passage will be operated by an allied coalition which will guarantee free movement of ships without fees. I think that’s a preferable approach. But at this moment in time, Iran has a gun to our head with the closure of the Strait. Somehow, we’ve got to find a way to make sure that that gun is not there,” he said.
