Opposition Israeli newspaper Haaretz published an article by Ben Samuels titled “Trump and Netanyahu Are Hurtling Toward a Rupture That Could Shock U.S.-Israel Ties.” Samuels states bluntly that “The war was a failure by any measure,” and appears to “kick) the can down the road concerning Iran’s nuclear program.” He says that the entire process, particularly the back and forth over Lebanon, has led to an “acute deterioration in the Trump-Netanyahu relationship,” creating a “wedge” between the two leaders, which “should not be taken for granted.” This dilemma will only worsen, he says, given the enormous pressure on Trump to end the war. Netanyahu’s options, therefore, are either to “be portrayed as totally subservient or he will be forced to disobey Trump and further isolate Israel.”
In an [article in the Financial Times, Gideon Rachman writes that “any peace is likely to be fragile,” and this deal “is not a permanent settlement”—no matter how Trump tries to sell it. Many of the biggest and thorniest issues remain to be worked out, and “It’s easy to see how it could all break down.” He writes that Lebanon remains the most obvious flashpoint, but lists others, like the nuclear program and opening of Hormuz—and it may be “punctuated by occasional bouts of violence.” There was no outright victor in the war, and therefore the “hardliners on all sides are unhappy with it.” Trump will work to repackage this failure as success over the coming period, he believes.
Arch neocon and Former National Security Advisor John Bolton expressed his displeasure in an interview with Euronews, claiming it is a “very bad deal” and that Trump did not take into account the “geo-strategic implications” of the situation. The Iranians knew Trump was desperate for a deal, Bolton said, so they “maneuvered him, they have played him like a violin.” “I think it’s embarrassing for the president.”
The Institute for the Study of War, also on the hawkish side, pointed out that “US and Iranian sources have expressed diverging interpretations” of their agreement, which “will likely complicate” its implementation. Nevertheless, “Iran’s interpretation of the agreement’s provisions about the Strait of Hormuz would constitute a significant strategic victory for Iran if its interpretation becomes the recognized reality.” The day before, the ISW had noted that an “open” strait under Iranian control “is not a return to the pre-war status quo and would mean that Iran has accomplished a key war aim.”
