“Donald Trump has no good options for reopening the Strait of Hormuz,” the London Economist magazine merrily pronounces in its headline on a July 14 article which details how the fighting has resumed, the MOU has become a dead letter, and President Donald Trump has a series of bad options to choose from, none of which will work. “The American president wants the strait back open—yet he has no good way to do it,” the article states.
First, the author provides some details on traffic through the strait.
“The usual route through the strait, known as the Traffic Separation Scheme, is a six-mile-wide corridor through its deepest waters. Mines there imperil ships, forcing vessels to choose between alternative passages: north through Iran’s waters, or south through Oman’s. For weeks America’s navy has helped escort tankers through the latter route.”
But transit remains totally insecure. “If shipowners think they might be attacked, most will consider Hormuz shut. Tanker traffic is at its lowest level since May 25th, says Kpler, a ship-tracker. Just 11 vessels transited the strait on July 12th, down from 36 a week earlier, according to Windward, another such firm.” All of this is, of course, affecting the price of oil, with Brent crude rising by 20% in the week following July 6.
If Trump decides to escalate, the Economist reports correctly, there is no reason to believe this will succeed in opening the strait. “Bombing vital infrastructure in Iran would invite reciprocal attacks on Gulf states (and might be a war crime). Deploying ground troops is almost certainly a non-starter in Washington.”
So, what should Trump do? “The least bad option for both is the deal they are busy shooting to bits.”
