Ethiopia is sliding into a civil war that threatens to become a regional conflict. For the last week war has broken out between the Federal Government and a seven-member alliance of opposition armed groups led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Tigray provincial army. While the Federal government has yet to make a statement, the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) has issued statements concerning the fighting. The conflict follows the breakdown of the Pretoria Agreement, which ended the 2020-2022 conflict, over failures to implement its terms. Tensions have been high for the last six months with reports alleging that both sides had been making war-like preparations.
While this conflict is an internal struggle for power which has a history of its own, the conflict has the real potential of drawing in other countries in the region. Neighboring Sudan has accused Ethiopia of supporting the Rapid Support Force (RSF) by facilitating the transport of weapons from the United Arab Emirates, which has been the RSF key backer. The RSF is part of a British operation to overthrow the current Sudanese government of Abdel Fattah al Burhan and support terrorism throughout the Sahel region. Ethiopia’s official denial of these accusations has not satisfied the Sudanese central government and army.
Eritrea has a border dispute with Ethiopia that has been at the heart of serious tension between the two countries. Relations between Egypt and Ethiopia have also been tense over what Egypt considers Ethiopia’s failure to satisfy its concerns over sharing the waters of the Nile.
The United States blamed the TPLF for launching the offensive and threatened additional sanctions on those who escalate conflict. The European Union said it was “deeply concerned.” The African Union (AU) and the UN Secretary-General both cited the Tigrayan forces’ seizure of airports, called for de-escalation, and urged a return to talks under the Pretoria Agreement. The AU also called on Ethiopia’s neighbors to refrain from actions that could escalate the conflict. The UN’s human rights chief blamed both sides. Russia has issued a statement calling for the conflict to be settled through dialogue while cautioning outside powers not to intervene militarily. China has not yet issued a statement.
It is obvious that the ultimate solution lies in a grand vision shared by all nations along the Nile River basin to create an institution of cooperation for the development of the entire basin and the Horn of Africa. This basin stretches from the Mediterranean through Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia, all the way to Lake Victoria’s littoral states of Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania.
Such a perspective is, in fact, the official policy of the Egyptian government. This policy is not simply about Egypt making proclamations at conferences; the country has actively sought cooperation with many of these nations to realize this vision. Its commitment was demonstrated when it built the massive Julius Nyerere Hydroelectric Dam after major international civil engineering companies refused to carry out the project. That achievement proved that Egypt possesses the required advanced capabilities.
Furthermore, Egypt is a leading and active participant in BRICS. Therefore, Egypt must be an integral part of the solution. Given that the UAE and Ethiopia are also BRICS members, and fellow members Russia and China are heavily engaged in the region, BRICS could serve as an ideal forum to seek a comprehensive, region-wide solution.
