Steel exports from the European Union fell 20% in the first half of 2026 from a year earlier, the Financial Times reported, citing figures from the industry association Eurofer. Shipments to the United States, which imposes a 50% tariff on EU steel, dropped 29%. Exports to Turkey, India and China each fell by at least 18%, as cheaper producers undersold European mills. Crude steel output in the EU fell 3% in 2025 to 126 million tons, a record low, and by another 1% in the first five months of this year. “We are the only major region adapting steel capacity downwards,” Eurofer Director-General Axel Eggert told the FT, and the industry would “not go back” to the 2015 level of about 155 million tons. China alone, he said, exports about as much steel as the entire EU market produces.

Energy is the heaviest burden. EU gas prices have risen more than 140% since January, driven up by the war in the Middle East. Geert Van Poelvoorde, chairman of ArcelorMittal Europe and Eurofer’s incoming president, called Europe’s cost base “dangerous,” saying it prices European steel out of export markets. Brussels introduced import quotas in July, has imposed anti-dumping duties of up to 90% on some Chinese products, and has brought steel under its carbon border tax, which charges importers for emissions as EU producers pay for carbon permits.