Ukraine’s Economics Ministry four months ago revised downward its forecast for GDP growth in 2026, from 2.4% to 1.6%. Now, it is cutting the 1. 6% for 2026 at the least down to the 0.1—0.6% range. Minister of Economy and Environment Oleksandr Kravchenko, as reported by Ukrinform, told the Kyiv International Economic Forum: “We are now revising the forecast again. There is no final figure yet, but we already see a minus 1–1.5 percentage points compared with our June estimate.” He cited the blockade of Ukraine’s seaports, intensified Russian attacks, and, to some extent, the postponement of capital budget spending to the end of the year.

Kravchenko said that, while most losses in the first half of the year were concentrated in the energy sector, in the second half all sectors of the economy have been affected. “This is also about systemic risks for the economy and our budget revenues.”

Ukrinform added that, in the first nine months of 2026, the state budget fell short of planned revenues by UAH 50 billion. However, 64% of that shortfall occurred in just the last two months.