Speaking in the discussion at the Valdai Forum on October 1, Russian President Vladimir Putin was unequivocal in his response to a question on Kaliningrad, pointing to recent bellicose statements from NATO-member countries. Moderator Fyodor Lukyanov asked Putin, given the threats from NATO about a possible attack on Kaliningrad, whether Russia would respond immediately with nuclear weapons. “If it comes to a direct attack on the Russian Federation—in this case, Kaliningrad,” Putin said, “although it could potentially involve other territories as well—the question of Russia using all the weapons at its disposal would inevitably and immediately arise. That is inevitable.”

“Why?” he asked rhetorically. “First, we understand that we would be facing an adversary with twice our population. It has immense economic and military potential. Yes, we would not have a vast array of forces and means at our disposal to counter such a threat. We would have to rely on our competitive advantages in this struggle. And what are they? The fact is that we possess such advantages in the means we have to defend ourselves. Yes, of course, France and the UK are nuclear powers. We understand that perfectly well and are fully aware of it. But no one else possesses the kinds of strike capabilities that Russia has today. And these are our competitive advantages.”

“So, how can we counter an aggressor?” Putin asked. “We are not threatening anyone. We are simply stating that we do not have all that many means of defending ourselves. And, incidentally, neither that letter nor the Foreign Ministry’s statement [on Kaliningrad] mentions the use of nuclear weapons. They speak, as I have just put it, of employing all the forces and means available to our country. As for how that would actually happen, we will decide that ourselves.”