A leading expert on Southeast Asia, the Australian Sebastian Strangio, told the East-West Center in Washington on Sept. 15 that the U.S. demand that the ten nations of ASEAN break from China will go nowhere. Strangio did not mention Pompeo by name, but his audience certainly knew that Pompeo had read the Riot Act to the ASEAN forum participants last week, demanding that they cancel contracts with China on the many Belt and Road Initiative projects across the region. Strangio observed that the U.S. had demanded that ASEAN nations dump Huawei, but “they are not offering any alternative.” Huawei is both more advanced and cheaper, he said, and none of the ASEAN countries will comply with such dictates.
Strangio pointed to Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, whose Foreign Secretary Locsin (after a call from Pompeo) recommended cancelling the contracts with Chinese companies which were sanctioned by the U.S., including a new airport being built by the China Communications Construction Company. Duterte’s spokesman Harry Roque announced Sept. 1 that Duterte “will not follow the directives of Americans because we are a free and independent nation and we need those investments from China. We are not a vassal state of any foreign power.” Strangio said this sentiment is true across the region, and although they all want to remain friends with the U.S., they will not submit to dictates.
Strangio has just released a book titled In the Dragon’s Shadow: Southeast Asia in the Chinese Century. He said that the South China Sea issue, although causing some anger in the region against China, has to be seen in the same way that the U.S. views the Caribbean, implying that they cannot allow foreign military power in the region to threaten their security (the Cuban missile crisis comes to mind).
