Yesterday, the Department of Defense released the 2021 edition of its annual China military power report, entitled “Report on Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China.” Garnering particular attention was the section on China’s nuclear arsenal. In its executive summary, the report says that China is expanding all three legs of its nuclear triad and is “supporting this expansion by increasing its capacity to produce and separate plutonium by constructing fast breeder reactors and reprocessing facilities.” It estimates that China will have 700 warheads by 2027 and 1,000 by 2030, “exceeding the pace and size the DoD projected in 2020.” It also claims that “New developments in 2020 further suggest that the PRC intends to increase the peacetime readiness of its nuclear forces by moving to a launch-on-warning (LOW) posture with an expanded silo-based force.”
Otherwise, the report seems to revolve around the notion, set out early in the executive summary, that China intends “to match or surpass U.S. global influence and power, displace U.S. alliances and security partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region, and revise the international order to be more advantageous to Beijing’s authoritarian system and national interests.” The report says that even with the challenges of the COVID pandemic, “Beijing continued its efforts to advance its overall development including steadying its economic growth, strengthening its armed forces, and taking a more assertive role in global affairs.” And, “Beijing views the United States as increasingly determined to contain the PRC, creating potential obstacles to its strategy. Additionally, the PRC’s leaders are increasingly willing to confront the United States and other countries in areas where interests diverge.”
