The Trafalgar Group, the Atlanta, Georgia based polling agency known for forecasting Trump’s 2016 election victory, prominently posted Diane Sare’s name in its preliminary roundup of election forecasts. On the Homepage of its website, Trafalgar chose New York as the first state in a long list one can click “More” to see, to show what kind of responses they were getting during October to their election polling.
By clicking on the report linked to the chart, one can find out what their results are based on. In the case of the New York U.S. Senate race, a 5.1% vote attributed to Diane Sare is based on responses from 1,198 people, chosen because they are “likely” to vote. Of those, 18.9% said they were unaffiliated to any party; 65% were White, 14.9% Black, 11% Hispanic, and 4% Asian. 54% were women.
The listing is not alphabetical. Trafalgar may have chosen New York to kick off the list because, as Republicans, they are hoping Congressman Lee Zeldin is building up a head of steam to beat Democratic Governor Hochul. (They present him as much closer to her vote than other commentaries.) However, they also knew that by putting the New York Senate race first, Sare’s name, plus the fact that in the poll, she breaks what is generally considered the “sound barrier” for what are dubbed “minor candidates,” would be visible to all.