A fellow at the Council of Foreign Relations David Sacks, co-director of the 2021 CFR report on China’s Belt and Road, appears to be the ugly reincarnation of infamous U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau, who wanted to transform Germany into a “bucolic country” (read, wasteland) after World War II. The publication of the Morgenthau plan in 1944, while Allied forces were fighting in the Ardenne, had the effect of ten more divisions added to German forces, critics said.
Sacks is an admirer of Morgenthau, on whom he is writing a biography, while being the CFR hitman against the Belt and Road Initiative. (https://www.cfr.org/task-force-report/chinas-belt-and-road-implications-for-the-united-states/download/pdf/2021-04/TFR%20%2379_China%27s%20Belt%20and%20Road_Implications%20for%20the%20United%20States_FINAL.pdf)
Sacks published a long article gloating about Italy appearing to be “poised to withdraw from the BRI, a reflection of frustrations with the initiative’s unmet promises and the country’s strategic reassessment of China.”
Sacks is apparently used to spending his money before having it. In his report, he cherry-picks statements by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (besides, of course, those by Defense Minister Guido Crosetto) and manipulates data and realities to insist that Italy did not get any advantage from the BRI. First, he insists that yes, exports to China increased—but imports increased more, producing an imbalance. This argument, previously circulating in Italy, has already been rebuked by Italian BRI expert Michele Geraci, who said you must look at what is imported and not at simple figures. For instance, if you import semi-manufactures, this helps your economy. Also, if you are importing things you don’t or you cannot produce, such as smartphones, it results in downstream gains.
Sacks then turns reality upside down, saying that Chinese foreign direct investment in Italy during the last years has been much less than in other European countries. He does not explain that it is due to 1. Covid, and 2. The Draghi government blocking investments, such as in the port of Trieste, in semiconductors or, most recently, in the rubber giant Pirelli. (https://www.cfr.org/blog/why-italy-withdrawing-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative)
Perhaps Sacks wants to have a Morgenthau plan for Italy, instead of economic development in the BRI. Here is how he presents his project on Morgenthau on the CFR site:
“In the decades following the end of the Cold War, realists found themselves on the defensive, struggling to explain the United States’ unchallenged dominance and the growing influence of non-state actors such as terrorists. Realism, however, has made a comeback, as the United States now finds itself in a classic geopolitical competition with China for power and influence. This project explores how the ideas of Hans Morgenthau, who introduced realism to Americans at the dawn of the Cold War, can help guide the United States through the emerging period of great power competition with China. It will culminate in a book entitled The Realist: The Life and Ideas of Hans Morgenthau, the first full treatment of Morgenthau’s life. Morgenthau escaped Nazi Germany and found refuge in the United States, where he penned the most influential international relations book of his era that became required reading for generations of policymakers and scholars. The Realist will explore how the traumas of the first half of the twentieth century gave birth to Morgenthau’s realism, how realism shaped U.S. foreign policy at a critical juncture following World War II, and the lessons realism can offer for today’s world.” (https://www.cfr.org/project/life-and-ideas-hans-morgenthau)
