There are several indications that the strategy that the Turkish government is leaning towards, in terms of the future of grain exports from the Black Sea, is the restoration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, as opposed to any alternate arrangements. An unnamed diplomat in Türkiye told TASS this morning that it is almost impossible to establish an alternative humanitarian route in terms of shipping the same volume of agricultural products or ensuring the security of shipments. “More than 33 million metric tons of grain was shipped through [the Black Sea Grain Initiative] over a year, and there were practically no problems with ensuring its safety. It makes no sense establishing new corridors, an idea being discussed both in Ukraine and in Russia, as it is necessary to solve the existing problems instead, that is to meet Russia’s demands,” the diplomat said.
TASS, citing Yeni Safak, a pro-government publication in Türkiye, also reports that Turkish officials have been discussing three ways that the grain deal might evolve, and that Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is planning to discuss the results of these discussions with both Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Ukraine’s Dmytro Kuleba. If no solution is found, “the [food] crisis would escalate” under a scenario that would not meet the interests of either Russia, or Ukraine, or the United States, and “military tensions could arise.”
Under another scenario, unilateral actions will be taken to set up alternative routes based on bilateral agreements, particularly for Ukrainian agricultural supplies via the Danube, or a ground-based route to Europe.
The third scenario envisages a revival of the grain deal “as soon as certain Russian concerns are removed,” the newspaper wrote. This “is the only option that would benefit all the parties and thwart a global food crisis,” it pointed out.
