In a discussion with EIR today, a retired high-ranking Italian military officer, with field experience in several theaters, said that the occupation of Gaza is a trap for Israel, and a siege brings no result. “They might besiege Gaza for 20 years, they will achieve nothing. They are at a dead end.” Also, it is useless to delude oneself with the narrative that Israeli intelligence had failed, or that Hamas did not expect such a reaction from Israel. According to the source, Israeli intelligence had delivered the information in advance, but the political side did not authorize a reaction. The Hamas attack has brought Netanyahu the pretext he was seeking to stabilize his shaky domestic situation.
However, Gaza is now “a mega-trap.” The place is a single tunnel. Hamas military structures are all underground, Israel artillery and bombs cannot destroy them. Conversely, the moment the first Israeli tanks roll into Gaza, they will be destroyed.
Hamas “wants the slaughter to occur,” the source said. They let thousands of their fighters be killed. All those who made the raid were killed by Israel. It was not difficult, as they were all in the cross-border area. Hamas has consciously (and recklessly) sacrificed them. It wants Gaza to become “a showcase for Israeli wickedness.” Hamas “wanted to run the risk it ran, acting in a horrible way so as to ensure that Israel responds that way.”
Now, we must see how the UN reacts, he said. Let us not forget that the UN still considers Israel as an “occupying force.” It is a de facto and not a de jure occupation, but it fulfills all elements of the legal definition. That means that “we might reach the legal point in which the UN might condemn Israel for violating the provisions of the Geneva Convention on occupying forces.” This might not happen soon, for instance at the UNSC meeting convoked for today. They probably will issue a recommendation to not expand the conflict.
As for the larger purpose of the crisis, “Iran is an obvious target, a designated target by Netanyahu.” However, the Iranians won’t lose their nerve and won’t fall in the trap, they are too intelligent, the source said. Also Türkiye, which is already moving to find a solution, is motivated by domestic problems that Ankara does not want to explode.
Maybe the Saudis might falter and the Abram Agreement might collapse. Also, a larger target of the conflict is the progress of the BRICS.
