In an interview with Global Times, Italian economist Michele Geraci, the architect of the March 2019 memorandum of understanding, in which Italy joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative during Xi Jinping’s visit to Rome, said that his “prediction as of now is a 70% chance of Italy staying, and 30% chance of exiting” the BRI.
Geraci again rebukes arguments raised by some politicians against extending the MOU, such as “it brought no benefits,” or that “it brought a trade deficit.” You can hardly evaluate the 2019-2023 period, which had included three years of Covid and a war in Ukraine, Geraci said. Nevertheless, during that period, the percentage of Italy’s trade with China increased more than trade with China by Italy’s main competitors, such as Germany and France.
As for the trade imbalance, most products imported from China represent an input to Italian production lines, and therefore have been beneficial for Italy. This also helped to keep inflation down, due to low Chinese prices.
Moreover, the MOU contains no obligations, but options, and therefore is a zero-cost deal for Italy. It has high potentialities which Italy has not yet exploited.
