A Dec. 10 article in The Economist from London hopes that the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria will quickly lead to the expulsion of Russia from their naval base in Tartus, which they have had since 1971. Headlined “Syrian Rebels Have Dealt a Blow to Vladimir Putin’s Naval Ambitions. The loss of a key Mediterranean port could hobble the Russian navy,” the article focuses on the strategic importance that the West would derive from denying Russia access to the Mediterranean altogether.
Back in 1971, “the Soviet Union signed a deal with Syria to lease a port at Tartus on Syria’s coast. That enduring Russian military presence now hangs by a thread, following the swift collapse of the Assad regime. The Kremlin appears to have avoided a panicked and disorderly departure, but its influence on NATO’s southern flank is likely to wane,” The Economist hopes.
Although Russia is trying to negotiate with the new Syria authorities to be able to keep the port, Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace told The Economist that Russia will fail. “One way or another, Moscow will likely have to abandon its bases in Syria,” Kofman stated.
