RT on June 24 ran a compendium of strategic evaluations by various Russian analysts, in the wake of the June 21 U.S. bombing of Iran. Excerpts follow:
Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs: “The trap awaiting Trump is simple—but highly effective…. Israel’s leadership—backed by its neoconservative allies in Washington—will seize the moment to pressure the White House: now is the time to finish off a weakened regime and force a convenient replacement. Until that happens, they’ll argue the job isn’t done. Whether Trump is willing—or even able—to resist that pressure remains uncertain…. Netanyahu, in turn, will double down on his efforts to convince Washington that regime change in Tehran is the only viable path forward—something Trump, at least for now, remains instinctively opposed to. Still, the momentum of military entanglement has a logic of its own, and it’s rarely easy to resist.”
Tigran Meloyan, analyst at the Center for Strategic Research, Higher School of Economics: “Another option for Iran could be a dramatic symbolic move: withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Such a step would be Tehran’s way of declaring that Trump, by striking nuclear infrastructure, has effectively dismantled the global nonproliferation regime. The NPT was supposed to guarantee Iran’s security; instead, it has delivered the opposite.… If in the past an Iranian bomb was considered an existential threat to Israel, the calculus has now reversed: for Iran, nuclear capability is quickly becoming a question of survival.”
Konstantin Kosachev, vice speaker of the Federation Council: “Let’s state the obvious: Iraq, Libya—and now Iran—were bombed because they couldn’t hit back.… Meanwhile, the West doesn’t touch the four countries that remain outside the Non-Proliferation Treaty: India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel. Why? Because unlike Iraq, Libya, and Iran, these states actually possess nuclear weapons. The message to so-called ‘threshold’ nations couldn’t be clearer: if you don’t want to be bombed by the West, arm yourself. Build deterrence.”
Alexander Dugin, political philosopher and geopolitical analyst: “If nothing stopped them from bombing Iran, then nothing will stop them from targeting us next. At some point, they may decide that Russia, like Iran, shouldn’t be allowed to possess nuclear weapons—or find some other pretext to strike. Make no mistake: we are at war.… If Iran falls, Russia is next. Trump, once again, is firmly in the grip of the neocons—just as he was during his first term. The MAGA project is over. There is no `great America,’ only standard-issue globalism in its place.… But there’s no walking this back. He has triggered a world war he cannot control, let alone win.”
Dmitry Novikov, associate professor at the Higher School of Economics: “The U.S. will continue to back Israel and retains the capacity to escalate if needed. But for the moment, the mood seems to be one of self-congratulatory closure…. Of course, if they really wanted to go all in, they could’ve used a tactical nuclear weapon.”
