The Wall Street Journal reported last night that the U.S. is preparing to operationally expand its blockade of Iranian ports. Yesterday, U.S. Central Command reported that so far since last Monday, 23 ships that had departed Iranian ports had been turned back. According to the Journal report, the U.S. military is preparing in coming days to board Iran-linked oil tankers and seize commercial ships in international waters. The Trump administration’s decision to step up the economic pressure on Tehran is intended, the Journal says, to force the regime to re-open the Strait of Hormuz and make concessions on its nuclear program, which has been the focus of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.
But the strait was open before President Trump began the attack on Iran on Feb. 28, and Iran produced its 60 percent enriched uranium solely in response to Trump taking the U.S. out of the 2015 nuclear agreement and imposing “maximum pressure” economic sanctions on Iran. In other words, Trump, through war, blockade, sanctions and other coercive measures, is trying to force Iran to undo what it did in response to what Trump did–by policy choice–to Iran.
Further tightening the screws is unlikely to have the effects that Trump says he desires. According to The New York Times, the U.S.-Israeli war has significantly damaged Iran’s leadership structure, larger naval vessels and missile production facilities, but it has done little to restrict Iran’s ability to control the strait. Iran could thus emerge from the conflict with a blueprint to keep its adversaries at bay, regardless of any restrictions on its nuclear program.
