On April 15, the US Space Force released two documents that, according to Air and Space Forces Magazine, describe what the service expects the space environment will look like in the year 2040 and lay out the force structure it thinks it will need to operate in that environment. Combined, the “Future Operating Environment” and “Objective Force” documents offer insight into how the Space Force expects on-orbit threats and enabling technology to evolve over the next 15 years and a roadmap for how it will meet that change.
The Future Operating Environment, a 68-page document, predicts that by 2040, the U.S. will be operating more than 30,000 satellites, and that technologies like AI, quantum sensors and radars, and reusable rockets will reshape the space domain, ASFM reported.
From a threat perspective, the Space Force argues that without investments in key technologies and sustained Space Force growth, the U.S. could face persistent electromagnetic and cyber attacks as well as “covert interference” in orbit. China has the means and the will to field distributed architectures and harness AI for rapid decision-making in that timeframe. In that scenario, continuous disruption—including spoofing and jamming—could make U.S. kill chains “brittle,” giving commanders less confidence in space-enabled networks, it says.
