German Labor Minister and SPD co-leader Bärbel Bas has refused to rule out early federal elections in early 2027, reflecting the deepening crisis of the CDU-SPD coalition. An INSA poll for Bild am Sonntag conducted May 13-15 found 84% of Germans with significant or very significant concerns about the country, 64% saying no coalition can solve Germany’s problems, and two-thirds favoring replacement of Chancellor Friedrich Merz if key reforms fail. SPD support has fallen to 13%, behind the AfD’s 29% and the CDU/CSU’s 22%.
Merz’s appearance at the DGB Bundeskongress in Berlin on May 12 sparked open opposition, with delegates booing his defense of welfare-state “reforms” — the first such reception of a sitting Chancellor at the federation’s congress. DGB chairwoman Yasmin Fahimi had opened the congress the day before with a combative keynote warning, “Whoever confuses reforms with social hardship will find no partner in us.” Youth-union delegates went further, openly contradicting the government’s rearmament agenda — which neither Merz nor Bas defended from the podium.
The economic backdrop is grim. The German auto sector lost 120,000 well-paid jobs in 2025, with the VDA warning of 130,000 more at risk against a remaining base of 700,000. Q1 2026 was the worst on record in 14 years, with 61,000 mostly industrial workers remaining unemployed after the usual seasonal recovery. Rearmament will not absorb the loss: producing several thousand tanks, armored vehicles, and missile launchers does not generate hundreds of thousands of jobs. And jobs are not the same as productivity: you can’t use a tank to commute to work or use a missile launcher to deliver goods.
The Merz government’s decision to acquire a 40% stake in Franco-German tank maker KNDS through KfW for roughly €8 billion has triggered a signature drive among metalworkers against the deal. Coupled with expected SPD losses in the September Saxe-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state elections, “Down with Merz” is the slogan already forming for what could become an early 2027 federal vote.