It is estimated by oil majors that slightly over 8 million barrels of refined crude-oil products have been lost, worldwide, thus far, out of a global total which is normally 100-101 million barrels. The U.S. share of the global total is roughly 18%, and none of that is known to have been lost. So the share for the rest of the world, of fertilizer stock, gasoline, chemical feedstuffs, etc. is about 10% overall, though higher with regard to fertilizers.
The Chief Financial Officer of Conoco-Phillips, for example, Andrew O’Brien, is quoted to the effect that “The biggest challenge we’re about to face is that the markets sort of had a bit of a grace period initially, when the tankers that left the Persian Gulf in late February were still on the water; now all of those have reached their destinations.” In June, “demand destruction” will begin. Chevron’s CEO Mike Wirth told CNBC in an interview May 1, “If we don’t get supply reestablished, demand will have to come down across different sectors of the economy. That’s the big concern that everybody has as we try to avoid a scenario where that becomes extreme.” Demand destruction will mean rapidly rising prices.
