Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Quincy Institute, published a detailed strategic assessment of the emerging U.S.-Iran agreement on May 23—two days before President Trump’s Saturday call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu intervened to stall it. Parsi corroborates from his own Tehran sources the deal contours that were reported by Amwaj.media: a comprehensive ceasefire that includes Lebanon; gradual release of Iran’s frozen assets; an end to the U.S. “blockade of the blockade” in the Strait of Hormuz; resumed maritime traffic under joint Iranian and Omani oversight; and a 30-day window in which to negotiate a final agreement covering both the nuclear file and the long-term status of the Strait. The “blockade of the blockade,” Parsi writes, was “an absurd scheme concocted by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies that only served to undermine America’s strategic position.”
Parsi’s piece functioned as prediction. He wrote that “Israel will almost certainly do everything within its power—behind the scenes—to sabotage the agreement before it becomes irreversible.” Within 24 hours of publication, Netanyahu had reportedly inserted the no-enrichment / no-uranium-on-territory demands that stalled the deal, exactly as Parsi anticipated.
If the deal completes, Parsi argues, the consequences are “a devastating strategic defeat for Tel Aviv.” The two wars have “paradoxically strengthened Iran’s deterrence posture, exposed Israel’s inability to confront Iran without overwhelming American military backing, and inflicted incalculable damage on America’s global standing and aura of military supremacy.” Substantive sanctions relief would liberate the Iranian economy and shift the regional balance of power against the “Greater Israel” vision. Parsi also reads Trump’s recent off-hand “99% approval rating in Israel” line—and his suggestion he could run for prime minister there—as an implicit warning that Trump can damage Netanyahu politically more than Netanyahu can damage Trump.