On June 5, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released its modeling of the current Ebola outbreak in central Africa, titled, “[Modeled Scenario Projections for the Ebola Disease Outbreak Caused by Bundibygyo Virus, 2026],”(https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/75/wr/mm7522e1.htm) which warns that this outbreak could become the worst Ebola outbreak in history. The CDC cautions that this projection is not a forecast, but rather a “planning scenario” designed to show how the outbreak might evolve over time. The modeling is designed to help governments and aid organizations prepare for a range of scenarios and organize supply logistics. The worst case scenario includes the possibility that the first Ebola cases did not start in May, but rather in late January, and that this outbreak has already spread far beyond what officials have imagined.
At a press briefing, CDC official Jason Asher said, “Urgent action is needed to slow the spread of this outbreak and prevent it from becoming as large as, or larger than, the 2014 to 2016 West Africa outbreak. Without strong public health interventions, the modeling work suggests an outbreak of that scale is possible.” Experts say that success depends upon how quickly health authorities can identify cases, isolate patients, and trace contacts.
