Similar to the “Big Five” U.S. banks, Swiss megabank UBS shows a hypertrophic growth of its revenues in investment banking, while its lending activities show no growth. First quarter 2026 figures show a 27% gain in revenue from the investment banking sector, while lending has not grown. In other words, the amount of fictitious assets has increased massively, while credits to households and firms has not.
UBS represents a systemic risk for Switzerland, higher than the banking system in any other country. Its balance sheet is almost two times bigger than the country’s GDP. In case of a new global financial crisis, UBS is “too big to be bailed out.”
In the mildest scenario of only 2-2.5% losses, for an estimated amount of ~USD 40–45 billion, the shock to UBS capital would be major, but the bank could theoretically be bailed out, provided that confidence is maintained.
In the case of a more serious scenario, of 5% losses for an estimated USD 8 billion (like Citigroup and other banks in 2008), the situation would be much more serious. USB wouldn’t be able to absorb its losses internally, and the Swiss authorities would be forced to intervene with liquidity injections, a major systemic event for Switzerland, with potential implications for the global financial system.
