Since Jan. 24, the date the Dangote refinery opened, Nigerian exports of refined oil have increased seven fold, according to an August 24 release by the US Energy Information Agency. Despite a coordinated effort to starve it of raw crude in the early months of 2024, refinery exports—primarily of jet fuel and gasoline—have risen from a 46,000 bpd average in 2023 to 350,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026. In addition to a big jump immediately after the refinery opened, records show that the second noticeable increase was in spring of 2026, coinciding with the commencement of Trump’s War on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
The destination of the products of Dangote’s refinery—now optimized to over-produce an astounding 700,000 bpd—are evenly divided between Europe, Africa, and Asia. In addition, refinery CEO Aliko Dangote has plans to double the size of his Nigerian operation as well as to build one of similar size in Kenya.
