According to Chiara Nalli, an Italian researcher with experience in financial institutions involved in international activities, the anti-government protest in Serbia might escalate from a “peaceful” to a violent action. Protesters have been peaceful so far, but they represent a minority sector of the population and their momentum has been decreasing, so that it is feared that in order to achieve their goal—the toppling of the government—protest controllers might turn the heat on. Although the protest started after the collapse of the canopy at the Novi Sad railway station on November 1, 2024, it slowly expanded to political demands. However, students and even protest leaders interviewed by Ms. Nalli showed little or no knowledge of the issues involved. For instance, many of them were not even aware that officials with authority and responsibility for the train station had been put on trial and students of law confused the measures of preventive arrest of government officials with jail sentences. Moreover, students showed no dissatisfaction with the neutrality of the government in Foreign Policy. Generally, most students experience the protests as a happening, confessing that what is driving them is a sense of “belonging” to a community, which is the typical brainwashing method through which Colored Revolutions are organized. Students also showed no knowledge of the EU rearmament policy and what to expect in case Serbia joins the EU.
Part of the academic world backs the students, and the head of the Belgrade University, who acted as “mediator” with the government, is in reality siding with the students. The way teachers are recruited is through grants or facilitations from the EU or by NGOs, for instance help in publishing books or articles. But an estimated 60% of the teachers are not supporting the protest, Ms. Nalli said.
As to the NGOs, they have been financed by USAID and most of them are all seated in the same building in Belgrade, which Ms. Nalli visited.
As to allegations of government repression and free speech, Ms. Nalli reported that contrary to other nations in Europe, no member of the protests has been so far hit by criminal investigations for road blocking and media in Serbia are freer than Italy.
Since the protest has not involved broader sectors of the population and it has indeed deflated after the large demonstration of one month ago, Ms. Nalli fears that protest “managers” will “turn the heat on” in order to keep momentum.
Ms. Nalli put the destabilization in Serbia in the context of the escalation of the conflict in Bosnia and in the frame of the last defense agreement among Croatia, Albania and Kosovo. The fact that police in the Republika Srpska have prevented the arrest of President Dodik by federal police shows that “Bosnia is on the verge of civil war,” which inevitably will involve Belgrade.
