Media such as this one are speculating that Trump will issue a ban on diesel exports, based on a statement by Trump himself. If this happens, consequences for Europe, especially Germany, will be devastating.

While countries such as Italy have kept a sufficient refinery capacity which currently runs at 77%, Germany has closed 12% of its refineries and cannot “squeeze” them more to produce more diesel fuel. While German refineries are running on US oil, German reserves are at a only 57%, way below target.

A ban on US diesel exports will force all European countries to scramble for oil to refine, thus pushing up the oil price internationally. Germany, which has already the highest diesel price at the gas station, is confronted with a further increase of prices, which would be unsustainable for its economy.

Italy, although theoretically self-sufficient, will be hit by the diesel price spike anyway, because the diesel price is made at the Platts market, a division of S&P Global, for the entire EU. Italy exports 7-8 million tonnes and imports 5-6 million, for logistic and geographical reasons. In order to survive, it might ban imports and price its domestically fuel independently. Rome has already pushed its national oil company, ENI, to put a 30-days cap on fuel prices.

Conclusion: Germany, with low stockage, high pump prices and reduced refinery capacities, would face an economic collapse in case of a US ban on diesel exports.