In speaking with EIR's Harley Schlanger on March 19, market analyst Alex Krainer warned that the effect of the breakdown of oil and gas production and delivery due to the Iran war may be the “single greatest disruptor of the world economy in history.” Krainer, a former hedge fund manager and commodities trader, said that while price hikes due to wars and other disruptions take time to have a knowable effect, the Trump-Netanyahu war against Iran is foolish on multiple levels, which may create a level of disruption which will take years to stabilize.
The biggest problem, he said, is that the damage extends far beyond shortages of energy resources. It affects agriculture, transport and manufacturing, while the inflation that it generates causes central banks to react to liquidity problems by unleashing a flood of liquidity, to monetize the debt. This can trigger a “commodity super cycle,” leading to long-term price increases in commodities, building to a systemic crash.
